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ABARES expects Australian wheat production to fall 10% to 30.6Mt in 2025-26, with barley down 3% to 12.8Mt and canola down 6% to 5.7Mt. Low soil moisture has led some farmers in southern and eastern Australia to reduce plantings.
Smaller Australian wheat and barley crops lower export supplies from a key exporter, supporting world wheat and barley prices.
After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.