
Russian wheat exports from Black Sea ports totaled 732,180 tonnes in the week ended August 14, up 59% from the prior week, led by African buyers such as Egypt. USDA projects US 2025/26 wheat exports at 875 million bushels, up 25 million from the prior estimate.
Steady Russian flows support global wheat supply, while a higher US export forecast signals a larger US export program, a mixed signal that leaves wheat prices with limited direction.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.