
India is heading toward a third consecutive record wheat harvest of about 100 million tonnes for 2018-19, aided by favourable weather. Government stocks in the central pool stood at 45.83 MMT as of July 1, well above the 30 MMT strategic reserve requirement.
Ample domestic supply and large government stocks suggest Indian wheat prices will stay range-bound, limiting import demand and export pull on global wheat prices.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.