
Analysts expect global wheat prices to face pressure in 2025 due to record production, though tightening supplies may give short-term support. BMI cut its 2025 CBOT wheat forecast to $5.80/bushel, while ING expects prices to trend higher to about $6.
Trade tensions around the incoming Trump administration are a added risk for US wheat exports.
Record output weighs on prices while expected tightening next season and trade risks could provide a floor, so buyers should expect range-bound wheat costs.
After 406 past neutral report events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.