USDA's July Foreign Agricultural Service report showed wheat export prices in most major exporting countries fell in June on northern hemisphere harvest pressure. Prices have since rebounded on expectations of smaller EU and Russian crops, and global consumption forecasts were lowered.
Smaller expected EU and Russian crops and reduced consumption outlooks point to firmer wheat prices ahead, while harvest pressure weighed in June.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.