
US winter wheat plantings were estimated down 3.8% to about 13.15 million hectares in the February WASDE, the lowest since 1909. Rising stocks outside China and a raised Russian production forecast offset the planting news and kept wheat markets flat.
Lower US winter wheat area is supportive, but larger Russian output and higher stocks cap price gains.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.