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An analysis of Canada's March seeding intentions report shows the average report-day move in new-crop futures over the past decade. Spring wheat, canola and oats each averaged small declines on release days.
Statistics Canada is due to publish its first 2017/18 area report later in the week.
The historical pattern suggests only small average price moves, but acreage surprises in the upcoming area report could still move canola and spring wheat.
dtnpf.comCliff JamiesonApr 20, 2017After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 35 past neutral report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.5%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
