
USDA projects fiscal 2023 agricultural exports at $184.5 billion, down $5.5 billion from the November forecast. Corn exports were cut $1.9 billion to $16.6 billion, and soybean exports fell $800 million to $32 billion on lower US supplies and Brazilian competition.
Lower export forecasts for corn and soybeans point to weaker US demand and more supply available domestically, which is bearish for prices. Feed buyers may see softer values for these grains, and sorghum exports were also reduced.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.