
USDA's December WASDE cut 2024/25 US corn ending stocks by 200 million bushels to 1.738 billion, driven by a 150 million bushel export increase and a 50 million bushel rise in ethanol use. The season-average soybean price was lowered by 60 cents to $10.20 per bushel.
Wheat stocks fell 20 million bushels to 795 million.
Higher corn demand tightens the US balance sheet and supports corn prices. The lower soybean price forecast and soymeal price reduction signal weaker expected returns for soybean crushers and feed users.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.