
USDA's January 12, 2024 report raised the final US corn yield to a record 177.3 bushels per acre, with production at 15.34 billion bushels, well above expectations. Soybean yield rose to 50.6 bushels per acre, with production of 4.17 billion bushels.
Record corn and larger soybean supplies add to already ample stocks and are bearish for prices. The surprise yield increase reduces the feed grain cost pressure buyers face.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.