USDA released its May 2023 WASDE, offering the first look at 2023/24 balance sheets. Corn 2023/24 ending stocks were put at 2.222 billion bushels, soybean stocks at 335 million, and wheat stocks at 556 million, the lowest in 16 years.
The soybean crush was projected at 2.31 billion bushels and US corn exports for 2023/24 were raised by 325 million bushels to 2.1 billion.
Large corn and soybean stocks and a higher export outlook for corn are mixed, with ample supply weighing on prices. The lowest wheat carryout in 16 years supports wheat values.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.