
Agriculture of America reports the July WASDE cut old-crop US corn stocks from 2.145 to 2.020 billion bushels and new-crop stocks from 1.96 to 1.79 billion. New-crop wheat stocks were lowered to 722 million bushels, and USDA raised new-crop corn exports.
StoneX's Arlan Suderman said corn stocks are approaching the 1.5 billion bushel level, where a small yield drop could tighten supplies sharply.
Stocks nearing 1.5 billion bushels leave little cushion, so yield risk could move corn prices sharply higher. Feed buyers should expect volatility in the second half of the season.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.