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CIH's summary of the September WASDE says corn was bearish relative to trade expectations, soybeans neutral, and wheat supportive. USDA raised corn planted and harvested acres by 800,000 each, offsetting the yield cut, and world wheat production and ending stocks were lowered sharply.
Corn supply was larger than the trade expected, pressuring feed grain values, while sharply lower world wheat stocks support wheat prices and wheat-based feed costs.
cihedging.comSep 12, 2023After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Higher harvested acres offset the yield cut so corn was bearish versus trade expectations.
