
CIH said the February WASDE was neutral to bullish for corn, neutral for soybeans and neutral to bearish for wheat relative to trade expectations. USDA raised US corn exports by 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion and cut ending stocks.
South American corn output was lowered and soybean output raised.
Higher export demand reduces US corn carryout and supports prices, while expected South American competition as harvest proceeds limits longer-term upside.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.