◂ Event Timeline

May 31, 2023REPORTUS

USDA lowers ag trade forecast for FY 2023

USDA cut its FY2023 forecast for U.S. agricultural export value to $181 billion, down $3.5 billion from February, and projected a $17 billion trade deficit. Corn exports were cut $2.1 billion to $14.5 billion amid Brazilian competition, and wheat exports were cut $900 million to $7.4 billion due to smaller winter wheat production from drought.

WHY IT MATTERS

Lower projected US corn and wheat export volumes reduce demand and weigh on prices, while the drought-hit winter wheat crop offers some support for wheat.

AFFECTSCorn▼Wheat (SRW)▼Wheat (HRW)▲Soybeans▲

SOURCE
agri-pulse.comBill TomsonMay 31, 2023

Price reaction & history

Corn▼bearishSO FAR1d 0.0%5d -1.8%20d +0.1%

After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.

Nov 30, 2022US cuts billions of dollars off of FY 23 ag export forecast | 2022-11-29 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-3.9%
Jan 6, 2021USDA: Mexican stance against GMO hurts farmers | 2021-01-05 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+5.2%
Sep 10, 2021USDA raises corn and soy yield forecasts, pushing down price expectations | 2021-09-10 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+1.1%
Aug 28, 2024Ag trade deficit to grow in FY25, as Chinese market shrinks | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.4%
May 10, 2019[Article Headline] | 2019-05-10 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+5.8%

Wheat (SRW)▼bearishSO FAR1d +0.1%5d -3.2%20d +9.0%

After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

Mar 9, 2022USDA forecast larger wheat stocks despite war, but warns of uncertainty | 2022-03-09 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-3.1%
Mar 29, 2018Farmers plan to cut corn, soybean acreage, USDA says | 2018-03-29 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+1.5%
Dec 9, 2021USDA maintains corn, soybean stocks estimates, gives bearish wheat figures in December WASDE | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-6.6%
May 14, 2025USDA forecasts lower wheat, corn, sorghum prices for 2025/26-3.8%
Feb 19, 2024Agriculture Canada has lowered its canola export forecast for MY 2023/24+1.0%

Wheat (HRW)▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.9%5d +4.7%20d +2.2%

After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.

May 10, 2017Winter wheat takes a hit in USDA forecast | 2017-05-10 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.6%
May 12, 2022USDA warns on corn, winter wheat crops due to weather | 2022-05-12 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+11.7%
Jun 12, 2024WASDE: Soybean ending stock expectations increased, while wheat lower and corn steady | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-8.3%
Feb 20, 2020USDA's acreage, price projections for 2020 - Brownfield Ag News-5.7%
Mar 31, 2026CRMAgri - Latest - USDA Highlights: Wheat prices gain after US sowings forecast at lowest on record-3.0%

Soybeans▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.3%5d +4.4%20d +11.9%

After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.

Dec 8, 2023USDA trims forecast for soybean, wheat supplies | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.2%
Sep 12, 2019USDA lowers corn, soybean yield estimates | 2019-09-12 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.1%
Jun 11, 2020June USDA report on par with trade expectations | 2020-06-11 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.7%
Aug 12, 2021USDA lowers corn, soybean yield estimates due to drought | 2021-08-12 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-3.4%
Feb 5, 2021US sets new record for ag exports to China in 2020 | 2021-02-05 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.4%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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