◂ Event Timeline

Jun 12, 2024REPORTGlobal

WASDE: Soybean ending stock expectations increased, while wheat lower and corn steady

USDA raised its 2024-25 U.S. soybean ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 455 million, citing lower crush, and lowered wheat stocks to 758 million bushels. It held corn ending stocks at 2.1 billion bushels.

The agency raised its U.S. wheat export forecast sharply to 800 million bushels and cut Russian wheat output to 83 million tons.

WHY IT MATTERS

Lower Russian and EU wheat supplies and stronger U.S. export demand support wheat prices, while higher soybean stocks weigh on soybeans. Corn is steady, with stocks at their largest since 2018-19.

AFFECTSWHEAT▲KWHEAT▲SOY▼CORN◆

SOURCE
agri-pulse.comNoah WicksJun 12, 2024

Price reaction & history

WHEAT▲bullishSO FAR1d -0.3%5d -2.1%20d -3.3%

After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.

Oct 12, 2021USDA officials increase soybean, corn yield estimates | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+0.7%
Dec 8, 2023USDA trims forecast for soybean, wheat supplies | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-4.0%
Dec 11, 2024December WASDE Shows Decrease in US Corn and Wheat Ending Stocks in 2024/2025-0.4%
Nov 12, 2019WASDE Lowers Wheat, Corn and Soybean Forecasts | AgWired+3.4%
Jan 12, 2021WASDE Lowers Corn/Soy Ending Stocks Again - AgWeb+2.3%

KWHEAT▲bullishSO FAR1d -2.7%5d -8.3%20d -9.7%

After 180 past bullish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.

May 12, 2022USDA warns on corn, winter wheat crops due to weather | 2022-05-12 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+11.7%
May 31, 2023USDA lowers ag trade forecast for FY 2023 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+4.7%
May 10, 2017Winter wheat takes a hit in USDA forecast | 2017-05-10 | Agri-Pulse | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.6%
May 12, 2023Lower-Than-Expected Winter Wheat Production Sends KC Wheat Futures Soaring-3.9%
Jul 12, 2021July WASDE optimistic for wheat but less so for corn and soybeans - Agweek | #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets+8.8%

SOY▼bearishSO FAR1d -0.1%5d -0.3%20d -3.0%

After 788 past bearish report events, SOY moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.

Mar 9, 2021Corn, soy, wheat ending stocks hold steady for March | 2021-03-09 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-1.3%
Oct 12, 2021USDA officials increase soybean, corn yield estimates | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.5%
Jun 12, 2023USDA Increases Corn, Soybean, Wheat Ending Stocks - ProAg+5.8%
Sep 10, 2021USDA raises corn and soy yield forecasts, pushing down price expectations | 2021-09-10 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+3.0%
Nov 10, 2023Yield, Production and Stocks Increase Sends Corn and Soy Lower Following November WASDE+2.4%

CORN◆neutralSO FAR1d +0.6%5d -0.1%20d -7.3%

After 770 past neutral report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

Mar 9, 2021Corn, soy, wheat ending stocks hold steady for March | 2021-03-09 | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-10.3%
Dec 9, 2021USDA maintains corn, soybean stocks estimates, gives bearish wheat figures in December WASDE | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-0.4%
Feb 11, 2025USDA Defies Expectations, Holds Corn and Soybean Ending Stocks Steady+1.4%
May 1, 2026April WASDE Holds Corn, Soybean Ending Stocks Steady, Raises Wheat Stocks-1.4%
Nov 11, 2024WASDE Shows Decrease in US Corn and Soybean Ending Stocks in 2024/2025-1.2%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

WHEAT · GP ▸

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KWHEAT · GP ▸

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