Lower-Than-Expected Winter Wheat Production Sends KC Wheat Futures Soaring

After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.

• May 12, 2026Report Reaction | Wheat futures surge after USDA pegs production well below trade expectations - Pro Farmer+2.0%
• Mar 29, 2024EU sees soft wheat production falling to four-year low in 2024/25-1.3%
• Sep 30, 2020Corn, soy, wheat surge on lower-than-expected U.S. grain stocks | Financial Post+2.5%
• Jun 13, 2018Wheat Prices Rally on Lower U.S. Winter Wheat Production Estimate - Northern Ag Network-2.0%
• Sep 30, 2022Hard Red Winter Wheat production lowest since 1957 - Oklahoma Farm Report+0.4%

After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.

• Nov 10, 2023Yield, Production and Stocks Increase Sends Corn and Soy Lower Following November WASDE+2.4%
• Feb 8, 2019Soybean Production Up in 2018, USDA Reports Winter Wheat Seedings and Grain Stocks also reported-1.1%
• Jul 12, 2023Wheat, Soybean Carryover Larger Than Expected | Red River Farm Network-1.9%
• Jun 30, 2025U.S. grains: Soy futures end mixed; corn and wheat sag after USDA reports | The Western Producer+0.4%
• Aug 12, 2024Soybean Futures Crumble Following Increased Acres, Record Yield and Production-8.7%

After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Apr 8, 2022PF Report Reaction: U.S. corn, wheat ending stocks higher than expected - Pro Farmer-0.7%
• Jun 10, 2022USDA projects larger than expected U.S. winter wheat crop, unexpectedly boosts 2022-23 corn ending stocks - Pro Farmer-1.2%
• Feb 9, 2022PF Report Reaction: U.S. ending stocks higher than expected - Pro Farmer+0.5%
• Nov 10, 2023Yield, Production and Stocks Increase Sends Corn and Soy Lower Following November WASDE+0.0%
• Feb 8, 2019Soybean Production Up in 2018, USDA Reports Winter Wheat Seedings and Grain Stocks also reported+0.8%

After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.

• May 12, 2026Report Reaction | Wheat futures surge after USDA pegs production well below trade expectations - Pro Farmer+4.5%
• Sep 30, 2022Hard Red Winter Wheat production lowest since 1957 - Oklahoma Farm Report-0.2%
• Oct 31, 2024CBOT wheat firms again on worse than expected winter wheat conditions - AgriInsite-0.3%
• Sep 12, 2023Wheat prices strengthened by lower global production - Farmers Weekly+2.4%
• May 12, 2026Lowest Hard Red Winter Wheat Production Since 1957 Highlighted in Latest WASDE Report - Oklahoma Farm Report+4.5%