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The May WASDE put U.S. hard red winter wheat production at 515 million bushels, the lowest since 1957. Total U.S. all-wheat production was estimated at 1.561 billion bushels, down more than 300 million from the prior year, driven by Plains drought.
A historically small HRW crop tightens supplies of the variety used in many feed and milling blends and supports wheat prices, especially for hard red classes.
oklahomafarmreport.comKC SheperdMay 12, 2026After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
HRW production at 515 mil bu, the lowest since 1957, is the key supply shock for the HRW contract.
HRW output at its lowest since 1957 highlights the supply loss that drove prices.
