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Oklahoma State's Todd Hubbs says USDA's May reports jolted hard red winter wheat markets, with production well below expectations. July HRW futures hit $7.50 before fading to around $6.90, and a Kansas crop tour pegged yield at 38.9 bushels per acre versus USDA's 37.
He also cites a disputed announcement that China agreed to buy $17 billion of farm products.
Crop tour yields above USDA's estimate could cap HRW rallies. The unverified China purchase pledge adds uncertainty to demand and price direction.
oklahomafarmreport.comKC SheperdMay 19, 2026After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
