USDA's September 30 Small Grains Summary cut 2022 hard red winter wheat production by 133 million bushels to 531 million, the lowest since 1957 and 29% below last year. The September 1 grain stocks report also showed stocks above trade estimates, with signs of weaker demand.
A record-sized cut to HRW output tightens the US hard wheat supply, supporting KWHEAT prices, though stronger-than-expected stocks temper the bullish effect. Demand softness is the main caveat for buyers.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.