Wheat Prices Rally on Lower U.S. Winter Wheat Production Estimate

After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Oct 6, 2022USDA takes axe to wheat production estimate | The Western Producer-14.4%
• Nov 6, 2019Australia: FCStone estimates wheat production at only+3.2%
• Oct 23, 2018HRW Wheat Winding Down - Northern Ag Network+0.0%
• Sep 30, 2022Hard Red Winter Wheat production lowest since 1957 - Oklahoma Farm Report+0.4%
• Sep 12, 2023Wheat prices strengthened by lower global production - Farmers Weekly+0.9%

After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.

• May 10, 2024USDA Lowers Estimates for Brazil Corn and Soy Production+2.4%
• Jul 13, 2018Changes in Wheat Volume in July WASDE - Northern Ag Network+2.2%
• Sep 12, 2025Corn Rallies on Friday Despite Increased Production Estimate+5.1%
• Jul 13, 2021U.S. livestock: Hog futures rise as pork production estimates cut - AgCanada-10.7%
• Oct 12, 2018U.S. livestock: Cattle futures rise on cut in beef production estimate - AgCanada+2.4%

After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.

• May 10, 2024USDA Lowers Estimates for Brazil Corn and Soy Production+2.0%
• Oct 12, 2018U.S. livestock: Cattle futures rise on cut in beef production estimate - AgCanada+0.6%
• Apr 10, 2026USDA Raises Wheat, Corn and Soy Price Estimates - Farm Policy News-0.1%
• Jan 10, 2025WASDE: Lower corn, soy production lifts prices significantly+2.7%
• Jun 30, 2017Argentina’s soybean production estimates lower in 2017-18 | World-grain.com | June 30, 2017 12:42 | World Grain+8.8%