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USDA's October supply and demand report cut its 2018 beef production forecast by 150 million pounds to 26.9 billion pounds and trimmed pork and corn and soybean production estimates. Cattle futures rose on the news while lean hog futures extended losses.
A smaller USDA corn and soy crop leaves less grain for feed, which may push livestock producers to buy feed sooner, and tighter beef supply supports cattle prices.
agcanada.comAGCanadaOct 12, 2018After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The USDA October report (Oct 12) trimmed pork production estimates and was reported alongside lean hog futures extending losses, directly tying to the selloff just before the move window ended.
The Oct 12 USDA report trimmed pork production estimates yet lean hog futures extended losses that day, showing bearish momentum early in the 5-day window.
