
USDA released its February Crop Production, WASDE, Crop Production Annual Summary, Grain Stocks and Winter Wheat Seedings reports, delayed from January by the government shutdown. 2018 corn production was pegged at 14.4 billion bushels, and a record 4.54 billion bushels of soybeans was harvested.
Soybean stocks were 3.74 billion bushels, up 18% from last year.
Corn production came in below November, which supports old-crop corn prices, while record soybean supplies weigh on the soy complex. Buyers of soybean meal and corn feed should watch how these supplies flow into the spring balance sheet.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.