
USDA's outlook lowered 2021 beef production by 105 million pounds to 27.3 billion pounds. The cut reflects an 11% drop in October 2020 gross placements and lower feeder sales, with commercial beef cow slaughter up from 2019 amid worsening drought.
Smaller 2021 beef output and fewer feedlot marketings in the second quarter tighten cattle supplies, supporting fed and feeder cattle prices. Drought-driven cow culling is an additional near-term supply drag.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.