
CME lean hog futures rose on July 12 after USDA cut its 2021 and 2022 domestic pork production estimates because of lower expected second-half slaughter. A separate USDA report showed strong weekly US pork export sales to China, the highest since March.
Feeder cattle fell on rising grain prices.
Lower projected US pork output tightens supply and supports hog prices. Higher grain values raise feeding costs and pressure feeder cattle.
After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 126 past bearish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.0%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.