
CME lean hog futures rose on Friday ahead of a USDA quarterly Hogs and Pigs report that showed the Sept. 1 inventory down 4% year over year and the June-to-August pig crop down 6%, both below expectations.
Analysts expected further gains when futures resumed on Monday.
A smaller hog supply than expected tightens pork availability for the coming months, supporting lean hog prices and reducing demand for hog-related feed inputs over time.
After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 144 past bearish report events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.1% to +0.9%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.