
CME December lean hogs jumped more than 4% on Friday, with October and December spreads unwinding at month and quarter end. USDA's quarterly hog inventory came in at 75.5 million head, up 3% from a year earlier, below analysts' expectation of a 3.5% gain.
Live cattle futures also rose.
A slightly smaller-than-expected hog inventory is mildly supportive for pork prices and hog feed demand. Much of the move was book-squaring rather than fundamental change.
After 100 past bullish report events, HOGS moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 268 past bullish report events, LCATTLE moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.