WASDE: Lower corn, soy production lifts prices significantly

After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Sep 12, 2024Corn Production Pegged Higher, Soybeans Lower+3.5%
• Nov 9, 2021WASDE Report Surprises With Lower Yield, Production, Soy Stocks+6.7%
• Oct 12, 2023WASDE Reduces Corn and Soy Production More Than Expected+4.7%
• Sep 13, 2025WASDE: USDA surprises with even bigger corn production-0.0%
• Aug 11, 2023USDA Lowers Corn and Soybean Yields and Production-5.3%

After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Nov 9, 2021WASDE Report Surprises With Lower Yield, Production, Soy Stocks+1.2%
• Oct 12, 2023WASDE Reduces Corn and Soy Production More Than Expected-0.4%
• Sep 13, 2025WASDE: USDA surprises with even bigger corn production+5.1%
• Aug 11, 2023USDA Lowers Corn and Soybean Yields and Production-1.6%
• May 10, 2024USDA Lowers Estimates for Brazil Corn and Soy Production+2.4%

After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Sep 12, 2024Corn Production Pegged Higher, Soybeans Lower+1.3%
• Aug 11, 2023USDA Lowers Corn and Soybean Yields and Production-5.6%
• May 10, 2024USDA Lowers Estimates for Brazil Corn and Soy Production-0.6%
• Jun 11, 2020USDA Releases June Crop Production, WASDE Reports-0.3%
• Aug 14, 2025Soybean Prices Reverse Losses on Bullish WASDE - American Soybean Association+3.1%

After 40 past neutral report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.1% to +1.6%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Apr 12, 2023The USDA raised its consumption forecast and lowered its estimate of wheat stocks, but prices continued to fall+1.5%
• Feb 22, 2018Early Estimates Expect 2018/19 Wheat Production to Fall in the Black Sea - U.S. Wheat Associates+9.1%
• Apr 22, 2019Low wheat prices predicted for the next 10-years-4.8%
• Jan 12, 2024W1 Wheat Update: EU Soft Wheat Production Forecast Drops for 204/25 Season; India Projects Record Wheat Production of 114 MMT for 2023/24 MY-1.3%
• Jul 13, 2020Global wheat prices soften in June: USDA - Grain Central+0.3%