WASDE Report Surprises With Lower Yield, Production, Soy Stocks

After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Nov 11, 2024November WASDE Surprises With Larger-Than-Expected Yield, Production Cuts-1.8%
• Sep 13, 2025WASDE: USDA surprises with even bigger corn production-0.0%
• Jul 12, 2024July WASDE Surprises Trade With Old Crop Ending Stocks Reductions-3.9%
• Jan 10, 2025WASDE: Lower corn, soy production lifts prices significantly+2.7%
• Nov 8, 2024USDA Surprisingly Lowers Corn and Soybean Yield and Ending Stocks in WASDE - AgWeb-2.9%

After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Nov 11, 2024November WASDE Surprises With Larger-Than-Expected Yield, Production Cuts-1.2%
• Sep 13, 2025WASDE: USDA surprises with even bigger corn production+5.1%
• Jul 12, 2024July WASDE Surprises Trade With Old Crop Ending Stocks Reductions-2.4%
• Jan 10, 2025WASDE: Lower corn, soy production lifts prices significantly+3.2%
• Jun 11, 2021Old-Crop Corn Stocks Surprise of WASDE Report | Feed & Grain-6.1%

After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Sep 13, 2025WASDE: USDA surprises with even bigger corn production-0.4%
• Jan 12, 2023USDA Releases January Crop Production, WASDE, Grain Stocks, Winter Wheat Seedings Reports-0.6%
• Aug 11, 2023USDA Lowers Corn and Soybean Yields and Production-1.5%
• Jul 12, 2021Grain Stocks Surprise Traders in the July WASDE Report | Red River Farm Network-0.8%
• Dec 10, 2024USDA forecasts lower US wheat stocks, raises corn exports in latest WASDE report | Feed & Grain-0.2%