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The July WASDE report largely matched trader expectations, but grain stocks surprised. USDA projected 2021/22 U.S. wheat ending stocks at 665 million bushels, down from 770 million and below trade expectations.
New-crop corn ending stocks rose to 1.43 billion bushels, in line with expectations, and soybean ending stocks held at 155 million.
Tighter wheat carryout points to firmer wheat prices, while corn and soybean stocks offer little new directional pressure. Buyers should expect wheat to lead the complex.
rrfn.comCarah HartJul 12, 2021After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
