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The August USDA report lowered global wheat production by 6.63 million tonnes, mainly from EU and Black Sea crop cuts, and global stocks fell 1.9 million tonnes. US wheat production was trimmed after the Spring Wheat Tour, but US exports were raised, cutting US ending stocks by 1.35 million tonnes.
Prices fell sharply after the report due to larger-than-expected US corn and soybean figures.
Tighter global wheat supplies from EU and Black Sea shortfalls support wheat prices and may increase wheat's cost as a feed ingredient, while corn and soy weakness offsets some pressure.
farmonline.com.auMalcolm BartholomaeusAug 13, 2018After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
