
Canola and soybean futures fell after USDA left its U.S. soybean yield unchanged, against trader expectations of a cut. ICE canola's front-month contract dropped C$5.30 on the day, and a slight carry-out revision also weighed on U.S. markets.
Traders had positioned for a lower yield, so the unchanged figure triggered selling across the oilseed complex, with canola meal and soy products also under pressure.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.