
The July USDA report cut global wheat production by 9.37 million tonnes, with Russia down 3.8 Mt after a hot, dry June. US production was raised, but US ending stocks fell, and US feed use and exports were increased.
Canada and Australia also had crop cuts.
Lower production in Russia, the EU, Ukraine, Canada and Australia, plus tighter ending stocks, supports wheat prices, while stronger feed-market competitiveness boosts US wheat use in feed.
After 769 past bullish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.