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Black Sea urea averaged $313.5/t in March 2023, down 12.3% from February and 65% below March 2022. US Gulf DAP was $606/t, down 1% month-on-month, while Morocco rock phosphate rose 7% to $345/t.
Henry Hub natural gas averaged $2.10/MMBtu, 16% lower than February.
Lower nitrogen and phosphate benchmarks and cheaper natural gas reduce fertilizer and energy-linked production costs. Rising rock phosphate prices, however, signal tighter upstream phosphate supply.
fertiliserindia.comFertiliserIndia.comApr 8, 2023After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 62 past bearish report events, Natural Gas moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -7.6% to +4.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
