
The November 2023 international fertilizer report shows Black Sea urea at $385.5 per ton, down 6.29% month on month and 34.52% year on year. US DAP spot was $535.63 per ton, up 0.16% from October, while Henry Hub natural gas averaged $2.75 per MMBtu.
Lower urea and natural gas costs ease nitrogen fertilizer expenses for grain growers, while firm DAP prices keep phosphate costs elevated for the coming season.
After 42 past bearish report events, UREA moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 38 past neutral report events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.6%), and +3.9% over 20.
After 40 past neutral report events, NATGAS moved a median +1.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -3.5% to +2.8%), and +4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.