
Monthly fertilizer price data for December 2021 shows Black Sea urea at $890/t, US DAP Gulf at $745/t and Morocco rock phosphate at $176.67/t, all far above year-earlier levels. Henry Hub gas averaged $3.82/MMBtu, down from November.
Price levels confirm elevated fertilizer costs that feed into grain production economics, while falling gas prices offer some relief on nitrogen costs.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 62 past bearish report events, Natural Gas moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -7.6% to +4.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.