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The World Bank forecasts global fertilizer prices to rise 21% in 2025, with urea, DAP and potash surging up to 41% year on year in Q3. China's nitrogen export restrictions, phosphate curbs and EU sanctions and tariffs on Belarus and Russia are straining supply.
Higher fertilizer costs squeeze farm margins and may reduce future yields. The forecast implies elevated input prices through 2025, with urea and DAP expected to ease in 2026.
ecofinagency.comEcofin AgencyNov 5, 2025After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
