
Black Sea urea averaged $900.5 per tonne in November 2021, up 47% from October and 115% over two months. The US DAP Gulf spot price was $726.69 per tonne, up 8% month-on-month.
Morocco rock phosphate and Henry Hub natural gas prices were also reported, with gas down 17.7% from October.
Surging urea and DAP benchmarks raise nitrogen and phosphate costs for feed grain and oilseed growers. Lower gas prices suggest some cost relief for future nitrogen production.
After 62 past bearish report events, Natural Gas moved a median -3.0% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -7.6% to +4.6%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.