
Black Sea urea averaged $678 per ton in September 2022, up 14.67% from August and 162% above a year earlier. US Gulf DAP spot was $752 per ton and Morocco rock phosphate was $320 per ton, with Henry Hub natural gas at $7.736 per MMBtu.
Elevated fertilizer and natural gas costs raise grain and oilseed production expenses, supporting feed-grain prices over the medium term.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 74 past bullish report events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -4.0% to +11.3%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.