
Urea prices rose 14.7% in February 2025 to $436.5/mt, and DAP rose 3.6% to $603.8/mt, according to the Reserve Bank of Malawi's financial report. Drivers cited include EU tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilisers, Chinese phosphate export restrictions, and higher natural gas costs.
Higher nitrogen and phosphate costs from EU tariffs, Chinese export limits and gas prices raise crop input costs, which can tighten grain supply and support feed prices over time.
After 74 past bullish report events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -4.0% to +11.3%), and +2.1% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.