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RaboResearch's semi-annual fertilizer outlook projects a shift to tougher affordability in the second half of 2025, with its affordability index turning negative in January. Restricted Chinese exports are limiting phosphate tonnage, which is also affecting nitrogen markets.
Negative affordability and constrained phosphate supply point to elevated fertilizer prices, and eventual demand cuts from weaker farmer purchasing power could later soften input prices.
agweb.comApr 28, 2025After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
