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Rabobank's semi-annual outlook says global fertiliser markets ended Q1 2026 under severe strain after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Nitrogen and phosphate prices have risen faster than crop prices, and affordability is negative through 2026.
Higher nitrogen and phosphate costs raise the risk of reduced application and lower crop output, which could tighten feed grain supply and support corn and other coarse grain prices over time.
rabobank.comBruno Fonseca AnalystApr 7, 2026After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
