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The World Bank projects fertilizer prices to rise about 3% in 2021, according to its October 2020 Commodity Markets Outlook. Phosphate DAP jumped 23% in Q3 2020 and urea rose nearly 12%, while potash stayed subdued on oversupply.
Higher phosphate and urea prices raise input costs for feed grain and oilseed producers, which can squeeze farm margins and support crop prices. Potash's weakness offers only limited relief.
blogs.worldbank.orgWee Chian Koh, John BaffesDec 23, 2020After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
