
The World Bank reports its fertilizer index rose 15% in the second quarter of 2025 since January, with TSP up 43% and DAP up 23%. It projects prices to climb about 7% this year before stabilizing in 2026, and China's nitrogen export cuts and EU tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizer are reshaping trade flows.
A World Bank outlook of continued fertilizer price increases raises input costs for livestock and grain producers and supports phosphate and urea values, which can squeeze farm margins and feed-cost planning.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 76 past bullish report events, UREA moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.