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The World Bank's April 2026 outlook projected fertilizer prices rising about 31% in 2026, with urea up nearly 60%. Since then urea and potash have eased from spring peaks while phosphate stays expensive, and the index averaged 147.6 in Q3 versus 188.2 in Q2.
The forecast was built on Hormuz disruption that has partly reversed, so the earlier surge outlook looks overstated for nitrogen. Phosphate remaining high keeps pressure on DAP-based feed phosphate costs.
fertilizerdaily.comKim ClarksenJun 23, 2026After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
