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The World Bank's fertilizer price index was roughly flat in Q4 2024, up about 1% quarter on quarter but down more than 17% year on year. The bank projects further declines in 2025 before stabilization in 2026, while prices stay above 2015-19 levels.
Lower input costs and ample supply point to softer nitrogen prices, which eases feed-grain production costs over the coming year. Upside risks remain from natural gas costs and any delay in Chinese export resumption.
blogs.worldbank.orgJohn Baffes, Kaltrina TemajJan 15, 2025After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
