DTN's retail survey for the first week of May 2024 found urea down 5% month on month at an average of $557/ton, and more fertilisers were lower than higher for the first time in three months. DAP averaged $789/ton, MAP $831/ton, potash $511/ton and anhydrous $792/ton.
Mosaic also reported a 26% drop in quarterly sales due to lower fertiliser prices.
Lower retail nitrogen, phosphate and potash prices reduce US crop input costs, though growers' profitability and fertiliser demand are still being squeezed by lower grain prices.
After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.