
Average US retail fertilizer prices fell from end-of-March levels, with anhydrous ammonia down 5% to $1,026/ton. Retail MAP was $810/ton, DAP $818/ton, urea $626/ton and potash $644/ton, all well below 2022 levels.
The data came alongside a CoBank report showing first-quarter 2023 prices down sharply from the 2022 spike.
Retail prices sitting well below last year's levels suggest lower input costs for farmers in the coming season. Potash and phosphate weakness supports margins for livestock and feed producers.
After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.