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A USDA Economic Research Service piece states that global fertilizer prices returned to 2021 levels in 2023 after surging in 2022. It recaps that Russia's invasion of Ukraine drove prices up almost 50% from February to April 2022.
Fertilizer prices that have normalized reduce cost pressure on grain and feed production, a mildly bearish factor for feed input costs.
After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.