DTN's retail survey found most major fertilizer prices fell in the third week of January 2023, with seven of eight lower than a month earlier. Potash and anhydrous each dropped 9%, while urea fell 6% to $712/ton.
Potash at $721/ton is at its lowest level since October 2021.
Lower US retail fertilizer prices reduce spring planting input costs for corn and other feed grains. The broad decline suggests continued softness in nitrogen and potash prices.
After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 38 past neutral report events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.6%), and +3.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.